Crystal ball

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We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships.

Our picks [1] follow. Districts shaded by color of current party control red for Republicans, blue for Democrats.

Our ratings changes leave seats at least leaning to the Democrats and at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need.

Those who think the Republicans can or will keep the House will think we are being overly aggressive in some of our ratings.

For instance, we now have Democrats favored in all four of their takeover opportunities in New Jersey. Democrats netting three seats in Virginia might also seem high to some, along with Democrats netting four combined seats in heartland states Iowa and Kansas.

If Democrats netted three seats in Pennsylvania, as our ratings indicate, that might be a mild disappointment for them, too. We have something of a split decision in California, with Democrats picking up four seats, a little short of their ideal scenario.

Those looking for the Democratic number to go higher might look to these places to exceed our expectations.

Speaking of California and Florida, Reps. Curbelo losing actually would not be much of a surprise; some Democrats expect it.

Valadao losing would be more surprising. Two Republicans who won very close special elections earlier this cycle, Reps. While his race has attracted zero attention, Rep.

It would be shocking if Peterson lost, but it would make sense in the larger scheme of things. And an open Democratic-held seat, NH-1, is always competitive and has not been quite as easy of a hold as Democrats might have hoped.

For a list of all Crystal Ball House ratings , please take a look at the chart at the bottom of our ratings page. Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility.

Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.

The potential GOP gain would come from places that make sense: We have them favored in three of the five strongly Republican states that have Democratic senators running for reelection: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

Meanwhile the two Republican-held seats where we now favor Democrats, Arizona and Nevada, are much more competitive states at the presidential level and thus are susceptible to Democratic takeovers in a challenging environment for Republicans.

The reasonable range of outcomes in the Senate still seems fairly wide, with a bigger GOP gain possible, or no gain at all or even a Democratic gain.

The Democrats still essentially have no path to the majority without winning one of these three states: North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, and the Republicans retain what appear to be edges in all three.

An overall upset pick to watch would be the Senate majority itself: Democrats winning everything where they are currently favored, plus Indiana and Missouri, and then one of North Dakota, Tennessee, or Texas.

Joe Donnelly D-IN up a couple of points last week. And then there is the Lone Star State. We have been flooded with messages from credible contacts in Texas, from both sides of the aisle, warning us not to discount the possibility of an upset by Rep.

This all may be reminiscent of the grassroots energy that helped power Trump himself to victory in McGovern lost in a landslide. On the other hand, Sen.

Would anyone be shocked if he lost? Also, Democratic outside groups have put a little bit of money into appointed Sen. If so, it will likely be the actual Election Day vote as opposed to the early vote that would save the Republicans in these races, much like how in Republicans did very well on Election Day across the country.

For all the focus on the House and the Senate, the real story of the night may be in the gubernatorial races, where we see the Democrats poised to make big gains.

Right now, the Republicans hold 33 governorships, the Democrats just 16, and an independent, Bill Walker holds Alaska.

Our ratings suggest the Democrats could net 10 governorships, while the GOP could lose nine we favor Republicans to pick up Alaska, which throws off the net change statistic a little bit.

More than half of the Democratic pickups could come in the Midwest. Besides the national environment, there may just be a fatigue with eight years of conservative GOP rule in places like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, particularly in a time of conservative governance in Washington.

The Republicans have a real shot to pick off Connecticut or Oregon, two blue states agitating for fresh leadership.

The Democrats could very well spring an upset in red states Oklahoma and South Dakota. The gubernatorial races follow traditional political patterns less than the federal races.

And keep an eye on Alaska, which has tightened considerably since Walker left the race, leaving a matchup between former state Sen.

Mike Dunleavy R and former Sen. Mark Begich D that the latter definitely has a chance to win. We know, dear readers, that many of these picks — though hopefully not too many — will be off.

But we pick all the races because we believe you deserve our best guess as to what will happen in each contest. A couple of months ago, we featured a handful of political science forecasting models that attempt to predict the net change in the House, and a couple of them also try to project the Senate.

More details on the models are available here , and their findings are in Table Sabato and Managing Editor Kyle Kondik with the help of many special advisers from both parties who have been with us for years you all know who you are, and we enormously appreciate your help once again.

There are two exceptions: Sabato deferred to Kondik on the pick in KY-6, because Rep. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place.

But before then, we have the small matter of the midterm to settle. We will announce our final picks on Monday. That said, the direction of this midterm does not seem like it has changed much in the final days of the campaign.

The Democrats remain in the lead for the House majority. The Republicans are even bigger favorites to retain control of the Senate. And Democrats will net governorships.

Right now, we have House seats at least leaning to the Democrats, at least leaning to the Republicans, and 21 Toss-ups. That would amount to a Democratic House gain of 29 seats.

Petrocik and Daron R. Shaw explore in a Crystal Ball piece this week. Historically, one of the factors that sets up the presidential party to lose House seats in the midterm is that they often overperform in the presidential year, winning a number of seats with the help of presidential coattails that they subsequently have trouble defending in the midterm.

They lost six net House seats. If Republicans end up holding the House, keep that theory in mind as part of a post-election explanation.

Some real talk here: Many of these races are very close and could tip either way. Access your cloud dashboard, manage orders, and more.

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